Four unspecified Iranian officials outlined to Western media how Tehran could retaliate in response to an Israeli strike on Iran. These comments were likely an information operation meant to coerce Israel into limiting its strike on Iran. The Iranian officials, which included two Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officers, told the New York Times that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered the Iranian armed forces to develop multiple retaliatory options. The officials claimed that, if Israel inflicts ”major harm,” such as by targeting energy and nuclear infrastructure or senior Iranian officials, the retaliatory options would include firing as many as 1,000 ballistic missiles at Israel, increase Iranian-backed militia attacks across the Middle East, and disrupting commercial traffic in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The threat against global shipping comes as Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have threatened to start an “energy war“ in the Middle East. The Iranian officials also claimed that Tehran could refrain from retaliating if Israel only strikes military targets—rather than energy or nuclear infrastructure or senior Iranian officials.

US Air Force F-16s from the 480th Fighter Squadron arrived in the Middle East on October 25.

Two unspecified Hamas officials claimed that Hamas will replace its leader, Yahya Sinwar, with a five-person committee based in Doha. The committee was reportedly formed after Israel killed Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024. The committee was meant to facilitate decision-making when Sinwar was out of contact in the Gaza Strip, which happened regularly. The committee is led by Khalil al Hayya, who represents Hamas in the Gaza Strip on the committee. The committee also includes Zaher Jabarin, who represents the West Bank, Khaled Meshal, who represents the Palestinian diaspora, Mohammad Darwish, who is the Hamas Shura Council head, and the secretary of the Hamas Political Bureau, whose identity is unknown.

Hayya reiterated Hamas’ maximalist demands for a ceasefire-hostage agreement with Israel on October 24, reflecting how Hamas strategy is unlikely to change significantly following the death of Sinwar. Hayya discussed the maximalist demands in a meeting with Egyptian intelligence director Hassan Mahmoud Rashad. The meeting comes as Egypt proposed a new “small” ceasefire-hostage deal that would require Hamas to release a “small” number of Israeli hostages for a “few” days ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

Russia has provided the Houthis with targeting intelligence to support their attacks targeting international shipping, according to the Wall Street Journal. The IRGC reportedly facilitated the transfer of the Russian intelligence to the Houthis at some unspecified point in 2024, helping the Houthis to target vessels that had deactivated their radio signals. The US Maritime Administration in March 2024 advised vessels to deactivate their radios when transiting near Yemen in order to protect themselves from Houthi attacks. Iran has separately tried to broker a deal between Russia and the Houthis that would transfer Russian anti-ship cruise missiles to the Houthis, further enabling attacks on international shipping. There is no evidence that Russia has sent missiles to the Houthis at this time, however, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Lebanese Hezbollah have killed nine Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers in southern Lebanon since October 24. The IDF 2nd Carmeli Brigade (Res.) (146th Division) encountered Hezbollah militants during clearing operations in a forested area in southwestern Lebanon on October 24. The Hezbollah militants emerged from a tunnel shaft and threw grenades at Israeli forces. Hezbollah killed four reservist soldiers in an exchange of fire and injured six others. The IDF assessed that the Hezbollah militants were also killed in the exchange. The IDF has continued to encounter and directly engage Hezbollah forces, typically in small groups of fighters, during clearing operations. Hezbollah also conducted an indirect fire attack and killed five reservists from the 8th Armored Brigade (91st Division). Israeli Army Radio reported that Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets targeting an area near a building where 8th Armored Brigade soldiers were staying. An IDF logistics convoy unit was also present in the building. The attack injured 24 other IDF soldiers. Hezbollah has primarily targeted Israeli forces in southern Lebanon with indirect fire.